Soccernomics by Kuper and Szymanski

An economist looks at soccer. Go ahead, roll your eyes. If you do, it's your loss. This is a fascinating and refreshingly different and entertaining look at (mostly) European soccer.

The authors have sort of borrowed from Freakonomics and Moneyball in order to put the business of soccer under their microscope. I haven't read Freakonomics but I have read Moneyball (about how the Oakland A's compete in baseball at a fraction of the payroll of most other teams). Their basic philosophy is find obscure talent, buy low, sell high and don't buy a mid career player coming off a good year. One club in the UK went one step further by telling each new player that the day the club finds a cheaper player who is as good is the day he is gone. And yes, that team was quite successful (the manager was Brian Clough, the subject of the excellent, if somewhat fictionalized movie, 'That Damn United'.

As dry as it sounds, these guys know how to enlighten the reader about factors of success for national teams (population, wealth, experience) and the accuracy of their statistical model. They basically say (and report the supporting statistics) that the people who run professional soccer clubs and national teams are, in a word, buffoons. So rather than bore you, here are 11 (get it?) 'bottom line' statements:

1. The country most crazy about soccer? Norway

2. The country that has the most success with the poorest resources? Honduras (but they make the argument for Croatia, Serbia, Czech Republic)

3. The country that turns out the most to see live matches? Scotland

4. The club most like the Oakland A's? Lyon, France

5. What's more important, the coach or the front office? By their statistics, the front office. No contest.

6. Don't buy a player after a 'breakout' performance in a major tournament. It's never worked out. Save your money.

7. You many hate the penalty kick shootout, but you better keep records of every penalty kick by every player who takes them because it will help when facing the shootout.

8. The country nuttiest about playing soccer? Costa Rica. 27% of the population play regularly.

9. The English media bemoans the England national team's under achievement. But the stats presented suggest that England actually overachieves. Same for Spain.

10. Based on their statistical model, the next newcomer to 'the usual suspects' at the top of the heap will likely come from Japan, US, Australia, Turkey and believe it or not, Iraq. Remember, population, wealth, experience explain outcome.

11. In today's game, if you want to win now, hire Guus Hiddink.

Strange as it may sound, this was riveting and should be required reading by soccer club front offices, whether they agree with it or not. A library book that I will now purchase.

East Coast Don