Naked Statistics by Charles Wheelan

One of my rare departures from crime and thriller novels.

(As usual, a note on full disclosure. I flunked my first stats class. As a transfer student in the pre-computerized registration days, I just needed hours to be eligible for varsity athletics. About the only course that fit my schedule was a course called Social Statistics taught by a barely fluent international faculty member. I had no idea what stats were, got lost by midterms and stopped going. A bit older and wiser and now in grad school, stats just clicked (kudos to a GREAT teacher of introductory stats) and I aced my way through multiple stats courses. Taught stats most every semester when working in a university.)

Dr. Wheelan is a professor of public policy and economics at Dartmouth and previously wrote Naked Economics. This book takes a peek behind the curtain of how statistics can be used and misused. He points out that the old line, “lies, damn lies, and statistics” should probably be “lies, damn lies, and bad data” because it’s not the statistics that mislead people. Statistics are just a tool. If something’s confusing, it’s more likely the fault of the data, usually because of bad sampling.

For about 12 weeks this winter, my wife hosted a Bible study for women at the house, which meant I was kicked out and spent the bulk of my evenings at Barnes and Noble. This book was displayed on a table on the route to the little boy’s room. The engaging part of this book is Dr. Wheelan’s presentation; think one part John Corey (Nelson DeMille) or Elvis Cole (Robert Crais) and one part Darrell Huff (author of the now infamous (to statisticians at least) How to Lie With Statistics, ©1954, of which I have an original).

The book breaks no statistical ground. What it does do, exceptionally well, is scrape off the glamour (or crust, you choose) about how stats are used to twist or disguise a topic to meet some agenda. His examples are drawn liberally from economics (national productivity, wealth), education (rating schools and teachers), and sports (who’s the best QB). He also throws gasoline on the fire that is the US News and World Report rankings of colleges/universities and doctors/hospitals showing how the results can be manipulated. Not to mention the habits of those most grievous of liars – make that manipulators of the truth – politicians.

Actually thought one of the best chapters was on something most find simple and quasi-dull – descriptive stats (mean, median, standard deviation, standard error) by using as his example the health trajectory of Jay Gould, the late evolutionary biologist. Dr. Gould was diagnosed in 1982 with mesothelioma where he learned the diagnosis had a median eight-month survival; half live less than eight months, half live longer. Thus ensued a discussion about data distributions, skewness, and responders vs. non-responders to treatment.  

Were I still teaching stats in college, this book would form part of my trilogy of resources: the textbook, Huff’s How to Lie, and Wheelan’s book. The examples are so ridiculously clear, presented with a wink and nod that no one who makes the effort will regret. This wouldn't be a primary text for a class, but it would be the ideal source of real world examples of the wise use of statistics. Yeah, it's that good. 

BTW. Dr. Gould eventually succumb to an unrelated cancer . . . in 2002, 20 years after being told he probably had eight months to live.

East Coast Don

Mad River by John Sandford

#6 in the Virgil Flowers thread.

Jimmy Sharp. Becky Walsh. Tom McCall. Modern day Bonnie and Clyde and that third guy. A prominent doctor's wife goes to her high school reunion splashing around a killer diamond necklace. Jimmy, Becky, and Tom are dead broke and decide to burgle the lady's home for the jewelry. Jimmy goes right in through an unlocked window, but it goes bad and he kills Agatha O'Leary when she freaks. In the process of escaping, Jimmy kills a guy for his car and they are now on the run. In the process, they kill Jimmy's dad, Becky's parents, a cop during a Credit Union robbery, and commit a number of other random acts of senseless violence. 

Virgil, an investigator for Minnesota's Bureau of Criminal Apprehension (and works for Lucas Davenport-the lead character in Sandford's Prey series), heads for rural southwestern Minnesota where he has to work with Bare County's Sheriff Duke, a Boss Hog kind of cop with a stranglehold on law enforcement on his corner of the prairie. Virgil wants to take the three alive, but Sheriff Duke would just as soon blow them away in retaliation for the murder spree across his beloved county. He and Virgil operate under an uneasy alliance. 

The county cops, with help from neighboring counties and the National Guard, are all trying to track Jimmy, Becky, and Tom to keep them from killing again and possibly getting away. The problem is geometry. A=2(pi)r means that if they've gone 40 miles, the good guys have nearly 250 square miles to search.

Only puzzling thing is that window. How did Jimmy know that particular window would be open? Was the necklace the real target?

Virgil criss crosses the SW corner and the state trying to get some slight edge on the three.

Sandford is one of the most consistent authors out there, offering nearly equal time for Flowers and the 3-on-a-spree. His Prey series is up to 24 books and you don't get that amount of books out there if you aren't any good. I have read only 1 Prey novel and didn't want to like it too much so I wouldn't feel obligated to read the entire series. But, I have read the Kidd series and I think this is my 3rd Virgil Flowers book. This was real easy to get into and before I knew it, I had read 100 pages. The presentation is deliciously readable. Flowers has just enough small town, folksy familiarity with the region that I couldn't help but see a little of Elmore Leonard's Raylen Givens (of the FX TV show 'Justified') as he questions locals who pretend to be bikers 'in a hygenic Minnesota sort of manner.' I know West Coast Don was sort of cool to his venture in an earlier Virgil Flowers novel, but I found this one easily sucked me in right until the the last line. For me, a satisfying escape.

East Coast Don

A History of Russia by Nicholas V. Riansanovsky

I thoroughly enjoyed this old college textbook, a 600-page tome, on Russian history, appropriately called “A History of Russia.” It was suggested to be a friend who happens to be a Russian History professor at UCSD, as I prepare for a trip to Russia in July 2013. This book, Riasanovsky’s fourth edition, was published in 1984, so he gets no farther than Yuri Andropov, who died in1984. Riansonovsky was a Russian émigré who became a professor at Berkeley. I think there were eight editions before he died, but I got this 4^th edition on line for $5.00. It was money well spent. He starts the story in the year 1000 BCE and works his way forward, which is precisely what I wanted. I’ll have to find another text to get a more modern history, probably Brezhnev or Andropov to Putin. Clearly, this book is not for everyone. Knowing that I read with a highlighter in hand, even the friends I’ll be traveling with want to do no more than read my highlights – have no interest in actually studying this material. On the other hand, I liked the review of information that I had not looked at in 40 years, such as the conquests of the Huns and Mongols, the exploits of the great personalities of Ivan the Terrible, and then the Romanov’s Peter the Great, Catherine the Great, and the series of Tsars who followed. Did you know the origin of the word Tsar comes from Caesar? I learned more about the rise of Lenin and Stalin than I had known before, as well as the transition from Stalin to Khrushchev. It’s a well-organized book and the energy that was building toward the revolution in 1917 was palpable. So, you probably won’t read this, but I’m glad I did.

Guilt by Jonathan Kellerman

Guilt is Jonathan Kellerman’s 28^th Dr. Alex Delaware/ Lt. Milo Sturgis novel spanning over four decades.  A proven formula, Delaware’s high intellect, knowledge of human behavior, and skill at retrieving information provide the leads and Sturgis’ tenacity and investigation skills linked with his departmental influence result in a high success rate of solving who-done-its.

An infant’s skeleton is found inside a vintage cash box in the backyard of an older home in an affluent West Los Angeles neighborhood.  Milo and Alex canvas the neighborhood but since the bones date back to the early 1950’s, they find very little.  One neighbor, a child at the time, remembers a rare but classic Duesenberg luxury automobile was parked in that driveway a few times, very little to go on.  Then another fetal skeleton is found in a park in the same West LA neighborhood but this one is present day and is coated with wax.  A short time later, a jogger discovers the body of a grown woman in the same park.  The LAPD gives the recent crimes a higher priority than the 1950’s crime.  When the evidence points toward involvement of celebrity power couple, Donny Rader and Prema Moon (dubbed Premadonny by the media,) the LAPD chief calls a meeting with Lt. Sturgis and Dr. Delaware.  He encourages solving the case but cautions discretion in investigating the celebrities, obviously concerned about his career.  Singling out Alex in a private conversation, he acknowledges Alex as the real brains behind the crime solving pair and wishes the city pay scale could attract more psychologist types into crime fighting.  Alex responses with his usual noncommittal, unemotional, nonjudgmental stare that readers can clearly interrupt as ‘You pretentious, self-serving ass’.

To gain access to the celebrity power couple without being squelched by an avalanche of lawyers and media types, Alex asks his long-term love interest, Robin to make some calls to her friends ‘in the business.’  Robin is a craftsman of high quality wooden musical instruments for wealthy people, many of them celebrities. She finds a disgruntled agent willing to vent about the power couple but not willing get involved.  Alex learns enough to causally approach Prema and her adopted children on a private outing and begin to build a rapport.  Milo methodically follows all the evidence of the present day crimes and the 60 year old crime becomes increasingly ignored.  But Alex can’t forget the skeleton of the baby buried in the vintage cash box and independently follows the historical records of the Duesenberg to its present day owners.

Guilt is difficult to differentiate from the long string of Delaware/ Sturgis novels previously created by Kellerman.  Just more of the same that his fans have grown to expect and love to read.  Dr. Delaware and Lt. Sturgis stay true to form… Alex the intellectual and highly skilled therapist and Milo the persistent bulldog maneuvering through department politics… all to solve murder cases for reasons deep seated in each of their psyches… far beyond a paycheck.

The Panther by Nelson DeMille

John Corey and his wife Kate are part of the Anti Terrorism Task Force and based in NY. He’s former NYPD detective and she is FBI. They have the dubious distinction of being on a top 10 list. Trouble is, the list belongs to Al Qaeda and both are targeted for extermination. See, John killed one of their leaders who was known as The Lion (in Demille’s previous John Corey book) and Al Qaeda ain’t happy.

The CIA isn’t all that happy about not having caught the mastermind behind the bombing of the USS Cole in a Yemeni port. Corey had been part of the investigative team and everyone knows that Yemen’s local Al Qaeda chieftain, Bulus ibn al-Darwish, aka al-Numair, aka The Panther. Also goes by Paul. That’s because he is an American born of Yemeni parents, grew up in Perth Amboy, NJ and graduated from Columbia University. But, obviously he has grown marginalized and now hates America with every fiber of his being. He lives in a cave, trains a cadre of believers way back in the mountains, and conducts missions against American targets with good, but not perfect, success.

So, the CIA has come to John and Kate with an offer. Go to Yemen and try to pick up the trail of the Panther, especially now that al-Numair has surfaced with a few recent attacks on Western targets. The problem is that Bulus/Paul is an American citizen and as such has rights that foreign born terrorists aren’t accorded, such as Miranda and due process, even in a dump like Yemen. The State department has even placed a lawyer on the team, which includes Paul Brenner (another DeMille character played by John Travolta in The General’s Daughter).

There is more at play. In a previous Corey book, rogue CIA agent Tom Nash was caught and cornered by Kate who then killed him. The guy was dirty, but the CIA didn’t agree, making Kate persona non grata with The Company.

Thus, Operation Clean Sweep. John is sure that Clean Sweep is not just about finding the Panther, but also about payback for Nash. And John and Kate are less ‘investigators’ and more ‘bait’. The local CIA agents have a plan. Make John and Kate visible in Sana’a and Aden, pay off a tribal warlord (who is not liked by the Yemeni military) to ‘kidnap’ the team and offer them up to the Panther for ransom. Once the deal is struck, Predator Hellfire missiles would wipe out the meet taking out the Panther (for the US) and the warlord (for the Yemeni gov’t) while F/18s bomb the training camp into oblivion, John and Kate then head home to NY. Good deal all around.

The meet is set. The Panther and his team are prepared to make the exchange with the warlord. John is all ready to place eyes on the guy he’s been after since the Cole bombing and watch him fry from Hellfire heat or put a couple 9mm into his skull, either works. But when the CIA schmuck running the operation says that John and Kate’s role is done and that one of the warlord’s guys is waiting to take them out, John paranoia goes into overdrive. He’s sure that one of those circling Predator’s will target their transport and they’ll get chalked up to accidental friendly fire. Payback making Clean Sweep a clean sweep.

I’ve read a number of books by DeMille. Actually one of the very best spy novels ever (in my insignificant opinion) was written by DeMille (The Charm School). You just have to know what you are getting in for with DeMille . . . long books. This even felt heavy in my Kindle. This book has three components. First is a heavy commentary on Yemen’s history and culture and on that level, was quite interesting. Better to learn about it this way rather than in some dry non-fiction description. Second is the actual story of stealth and deceit on the SW corner of the Arabian peninsula. And DeMille knows how to bring the goods. You don’t get repeat trips to the NY Times best seller list if you can’t. The third component is the wise-ass, irreverent, my way or the highway attitude of John Corey; subtracting that aspect of book might shorten the whole thing by maybe a quarter, but then it wouldn’t be a true John Corey book. That’s what his fans like. Great story telling, cool John Corey, nasty bad guys, and exotic locations (if you think a country that resembles the bottom of an outhouse can be considered exotic) all make for a terrific, if a bit long, escape from what passes for winter here in NC.

East Coast Don

Power Down by Ben Coes

Two energy companies merge to become the world's second largest energy conglomerate. On the day of the announcement, the landmark power source for each company, the largest operational off shore oil platform near Columbia and a massive hydroelectric dam in northern Canada, are sabotaged. That night, the two CEO's are relaxing in the glow of the merger at an Aspen chalet, while blissfully ignorant of the day's news, are attacked and one is killed while the  other fends of the attempted murder.

The platform chief, Dewey Andreas, runs a stern worksite, but there are inklings something's about to happen. When terrorists take over the platform, Dewey manages to thwart the attack (but fails to save the platform), saves a large number of his crew, and forces the escape helicopter's pilot to take him to land in Columbia where he hopes to contact the home office and arrange extraction. The usual suspects of alphabet agencies in the Government leap into action trying to find out who, how, and what's next.

The extraction doesn't go as planned so Dewey goes to ground to work his own way back to the US. Was the terror organization that well served or was there a mole back in DC? The surviving CEO takes some matters into his own hands to gain some information about who is behind all this.

Then the port of Long Beach blows up - the whole port, thousands were killed. Next, the Bath Iron Works of Maine, where hi-tech ships are built for the Navy, is also blown up. The interagency team seems paralyzed. Both sides, the Feds and the terrorists, need to learn how much Dewey knows.

Resourceful guys, Dewey and the CEO. Did I forget to mention that Dewey is ex-Delta? That the surviving CEO is a former Ranger? That helps.

Alexander Fortuna is a Muslim-born American educated head of a fairly large hedge fund. Right before the attacks, he makes some shrewd investments and within 24 hours he makes mega billions. He's out for maximum infrastructure damage to make billions to advance Islam.

Months ago, I ‘liked’ Vince Flynn on Facebook and a post by Flynn’s people said this was a terrific thriller.  They were (mostly) right. Coes introduces us to Dewey, the CEOs, the managers of the dam then jumps right into it. Once the dam and the platform have been attacked, the chase goes into light speed gear. The story jumps back and forth from Columbia to NY to Canada to DC to Colorado to Cuba to NYC, to Lebanon and more. The story was leading toward sort of what might happen if the US really did become energy independent and took all that energy money away from OPEC, exploring just what extremes might be acted upon should that happen. If I had a complaint, I thought the final chase sequence through Jersey to Manhattan to the Hamptons during a massive snowstorm was a bit over the top; couldn’t see the need for the snow. But I do like Dewey Andreas.

This was Coes rookie effort and while I think Alex Berenson’s Faithful Spy was a better first thriller, it is good enough to warrant venturing to his next two titles, both Dewey Andreas books, soon to be reviewed here. 

East Coast Don

Suspect by Robert Crais

Robert Crais' newly released Suspect is not about Joe Pike or Elvis Cole.  Instead he introduces two new characters, LAPD officer Scott James and Maggie, his German Sheppard K-9 partner.  James was on the fast track in the department with a career path to SWAT in his sight before he and his former partner, Stephanie were caught in a shoot out.  James was shot three times but survived while his partner died thinking James was abandoning her as he retreated to call for backup.  Maggie is a former USMC dog trained to sniff explosives.  Her human partner too was killed and she was wounded in an ambush by the enemy in Afghanistan.  Both James and Maggie now suffer from Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) and are suspect in their abilities to perform under fire.  James having no experience with dogs takes this K-9 assignment hoping to save his career and come to grips with his demons within.  He has no experience with dogs but immediately identifies with Maggie and demands she be his partner.

Meanwhile, James takes to investigating his former partner’s murder on his own time and the newly assigned investigators of that case invite him in.  Sifting through the evidence, James finds a broken watch band from the scene now tagged and bagged.  Maggie is able to ultimately identify the owner by smell and James discovers the man is a witness to the crime.  As the investigation unfolds, James becomes convinced fellow LAPD officers and detectives may be involved in the crime.  As his bond with Maggie grows, he soon realizes she is the only colleague he can truly trust.

Scott James is a much different hero than Cole or Pike.  He is not the infallible warrior but a troubled vulnerable man seeking redemption and resurrection of his spirit from the depths of shame and fear. Little did he know that his emotional recovery lie in a relationship with a dog.

I attended a Crais book signing event at our local library this past week. Crais admits the risk he took deviating from his tried-and-true characters, Cole and Pike.  Seems this is an idea he’s had for some time and convinced his publishers to chill out.  Rest assured Cole and Pike will return but good to know Crais has some versatility.  This was a good read particularly for dog lovers.

 

Someone asked Crais if we would be seeing him at poker night on ABC’s Castle series.  You know, the one with Connelly, Lehane and Cannell.  He said he’s not been asked.  Bummer.

Exit Music by Ian Rankin

Exit Music is my first Ian Rankin novel but apparently was expected to be his last in a 20 year series featuring his popular Detective John Rebus character.  Rebus is 60 years old, the age of mandatory retirement for policemen in Scotland, and has nine days left of his tenure.  He has a reputation for solving the crime even if it means twisting the rules and thumbing his nose at authority and politics.  Consequently, his superiors greatly anticipate his departure but Rebus, having sacrificed a marriage and all outside interests (except local Edinburgh pubs) for his career, feels the sense of dread and frustration closing in as retirement approaches.

Detective Sergeant Siobhan Clarke is Rebus’ partner and anticipates his retirement with mixed emotions.  She has learned much from her cantankerous co-worker but his methods embarrass her at times and she will likely be promoted upon his retirement.  A bond has developed between them akin to love but more like mutual tolerance and respect.

So, a week before Rebus’ final day on the job, the team is called to investigate the murder of a dissident Russian poet, Todorov in an Edinburgh parking garage.  While uncovering acquaintances of the poet and their whereabouts before his death, Clarke and Rebus find that a group of wealthy Russians are visiting Scotland looking for investments.  The local bankers and politicians are encouraging their ventures hoping for a cash infusion into the local economy.  A complex web of players and motives, many intertwined, make for a challenging final case for Rebus.  Was this a mugging gone wrong as the politicians hope or was Todorov murdered to silence his outspoken criticism of his countrymen?

A second murder, this time of a possible witness, adds to the mystery.  A larger team of detectives is assigned to determine if the two murders are connected and Clarke is placed in charge.  Rebus discovers that his archenemy, a gangster known as Big Ger Cafferty, is courting the wealthy Russians and may be involved in the crimes. Rebus would love to bring down this local thug who has avoided his legal grasp for years.  But Rebus manages to offend a bank president by his unorthodox style in interrogating the man’s daughter, a person of interest in the case.  This gains him suspension from the department until his retirement.  But a suspension does not keep him from investigating the murders.  Rebus views it as an advantage, not having to waste time reporting progress to his superiors.

Ian Rankin is an exciting discovery for me.  I don’t know how I’ve missed his work for so long.  His no nonsense and sarcastic John Rebus character is likable and relevant…perfect fit in the MRB genre…a Scottish version of Harry Bosch.  Rankin’s story is filled with plots and subplots carefully interwoven with information methodically revealed and cleverly connected in the end.  I see more Ian Rankin reviews ahead.

A Foreign Country by Charles Cumming

Spying is about waiting.

Jean-Marc Daumal is a well off Tunisian businessman in a dead end marriage. His wife tolerates his transgressions, but their current au pere, a 20yo girl from the UK is different. Jean-Marc and Amelia Wheldon’s affair has gone well beyond an occasional dalliance to genuine affection. One morning, Amelia is just gone leaving a note with her American benefactors, a rich couple who live on a boat and sail the Med. She just wanted to stretch her wings.

Fast forward 30 years. A retired French couple are vacationing near Luxor, Egypt. While strolling on a Nile beach, they are mugged and beaten to death. The next week, an ordinary young accountant of no real note is kidnapped of the streets of Paris.

Amelia Levene's (nee Wheldon) post Tunisian life led her to the British SIS (aka MI6) where she has risen to the point where she leapfrogs a senior level admin-type and accepts the call to be the MI6 chief. But in the weeks prior to her taking over, she suddenly vanishes. She has gone to Paris then to Nice where local assets find her taking a painting class, then she ups and disappears.

Sounds fishy. One of the service’s clandestine heads is worried; off the grid this close to taking over? Can’t ask a current agent to look for her so he contacts an agent who has recently been fired after an incident surrounding the joint UK/US interrogation of a jihadist in Afghanistan.

Tom Kell has been killing time eating take-out food and watching black and white movies on TCM. At times he imagined life outside of the service, but knows he really can’t live any other life. He’s asked to track down Amelia, so he follows her trail through Paris to Nice then to Tunis.

MI6 thinks she must have some fling on the side, but is concerned that maybe she is tying up loose ends with another foreign agency – SIS’s job is to look at all kinds of possibilities.

But the truth that Kell finds is not quite what London was expecting. Kell has to confront Amelia about what he’s learned about her absence and what he thinks is lurking beyond what she has experienced. Indeed, the French DGSE has set up an operation intended to curry influence within MI6 using a secret long buried by Amelia.

I read a back cover blub about another author’s comparison with modern espionage writers like Olen Steinhauer (in my power rotation) and UK's Charles Cumming. I hadn’t heard that name before so I checked out his titles and settled on this 2012 book (it was available at the library). This was espionage at its roots – watching, waiting, surveillance, persuasive interrogation, more surveillance, supposition, more waiting, more watching. None of the high octane shoot-em-up of some stories. Cummings skillfully exposes the highs and lows of the spy life offering characters of depth that the reader can both care about and on some level, identify with.

Yes, I’m glad I read that cover blurb. Also glad that the county library has a number of books by Cumming on the shelf. For me, not on the same level as Steinhauer . . . yet. But this guy is very, very good and worthy of digging deeper into his works.

East Coast Don